1. That is a misinterpretation of LE's activities. People in his position (check all companies, CEOs and Presidents) are given one open opportunity a year to sell large chunks of their holdings. Given that LE has owned ORCL for some time, he has options that are worth a considerable sum that will likely expire...and he has holdings that he would like to diversify. Since he has this one opportunity, wouldn't he (more importantly, wouldn't you?) diversify? You, as anyone else, knows the dangers inherent in owning a single company's shares, as good as it may be. I'm sure LE, with vastly better contacts and information, also recognizes that he would have a need to take this kind of activity at the point in time that the government allows him to take it. Check other companies...all the major players do the same thing at about the same time and the uninformed seem to think it's a sign of doom. Since LE knows as much as he does, wouldn't he have been wiser to sell back when the stock was at 30 or 40? He couldn't because there are limitations to the actions a person in his position can take.
Therefore, the intimation is there only if you choose to assume it is. IF he sold vast sums at 30, I'd have agreed.
2. No, reread your post. You said we all have the same information, but some choose to ignore it. As for the quotes you put up. How smart are any of those people? I don't know. I love Warren Buffet, but his silver venture didn't really do what he thought it would, did it? Plus, his record during the bull was hardly up to par. Abby Joseph Cohen has said to increase equity positions, and she's been as prescient recently as most people.
Hayami is a blustering blowhard who is constrained by a corrupt political system, while Greenspan has managed this market and economy quite effectively. Read what you want into either one's comments.
Information remains inconsistently delivered and the best information continues to reside at levels that people like me will do not work in.
3. Well, if you're not so good with your short term calls, then we can all breathe a sigh of relief, right? I agree that market conditions currently would best value ORCL at $10. But that is current. I'm concerned with long term. ORCL owns a particular market. I just found out ORCL was signed at a very large firm that is replacing all current DB related software (various vendors) and completely revamping their infrastructure with ORCL. This is only one client, granted, but a large one that will require many long term service contracts.
4. It will happen. Depends on the bull. I would like to see a depend-a-bull....sort've like the 1984-1995 bull market. The bull from 1995 on was a scary one that was consistently hard to figure out. But that could occur too. I just don't think it will. |
