Haim, i have a different take on that post, the market kept going up despite extreme call buying and optimism (crowds make trends and contrary opinion is not an absolute)
since now we are in a bear market we get the reverse, people will be buying puts on the downtrend and this is not contrary opinion, when the trend has a reaction and people start buying calls thats contrary opinion.
We are so use to people buying twice as many calls as puts, now it's just got back to parity, do you think in this trend we can't get to a point where people buy twice as many puts as calls?
People using bull market benchmarks for sentiment will not get it, just like people who recognized the mania early on and didn't get it.
the chart rules, price rules, sentiment is not absolute, sentiment doesn't make any difference to companies earnings prospects or investors return on equity.
all you have to do is look at the charts, the triangle on the dow and the rising wedge on the nyse, the bubble top in the nas, these are powerful trend changing patterns, we keep breaking supports and turning them into resistance.
this is unwinding time, the bubble has been in it's final stages since 1994, did you see motley fools on NBR the other night? |
