mostly OT re WCOM, AMAT, and INTC:
It certainly does look like the telecom sector is (finally) bottoming. As I see it, there is no chance for the likes of CSCO to bottom, until the telcos have finished their self-destruction. I think there is a lot of air in JNPR, and less in CSCO. But I wouldn't touch either (long, that is), until most of the CLECs have been gobbled up by whoever survives, (or allowed to starve to death). This process is well along, but not finished. How long will it be before the industry finishes writing off all their Iridiums?
AMAT and the other semi-equips also have been in a horizontal chart pattern for months. I've been successfully trading the 40-50 range on AMAT, and the 30-36 range on TXN. Made back about 20% so far, of what I lost being LTB&H in 2000. And I was out of the market for 7 months of 2000. Ugghhh.
I still think the semi-equips are in denial, just hoping for that sharp V-shaped 1998-style downturn. Looking over the valley, not realizing how wide the valley is. When the market realizes the current downturn is going to be more like 1973 than 1998 or 1990, the semi-equips will find a new, lower range. This isn't just an inventory problem, or an overcapacity problem in a few sectors.
Overall consumer spending is just starting to follow consumer sentiment downward. We haven't seen the bottom for capital spending yet.
Consumer demand is going to go down, and stay down for a year. The Shrub is thinking about raising tariffs on steel, to protect U.S. workers. We tried that in 1932, and it didn't work out well. The rest of E.Asia is going to follow Japan into recession, and they won't be able to export their way out of trouble, this time. Lots of opportunity for "exogenous shocks" to the market.
I will not be buying back Intel. They are becoming a big conglomerate, with a finger in every chip pie. Still very efficient, but I don't see them ever regaining the stature they had when chips mainly went into PCs, and everyone replaced their PC every 2 years, because they needed the latest Intel CPU.
Anyway, I have a list of Gorillas and other industry leaders I want to buy sometime. NTAP, EMC, CSCO, AMAT, TXN, others. I read the Gorilla Game a year ago, and I've been very, very slowly moving my portfolio in that direction. But I want to see the stocks go down, and then go flat for months, before I buy. And I want to see the SI threads for those stocks go silent, with only one post a week, and those by shorters and short-term traders. By the time Gorilla Investing is as out-of-favor as Value Investing was in 1999, then, and only then, will my portfolio be mostly Gorillas. |
