3. I'll generally never again recommend stocks to others.
oh boy is that right. biggg lesson. As for the others, a friend asked me the same question last week, and here's what I told him:
"1. it does seem possible to figure out, through extensive research, which sectors, subsectors, and companies are likely to perform well, even outperform, over time.
"2. it does seem possible to figure out very rough broad ranges of appropriate and inappropriate valuations for those companies--although this can be very difficult to do with high-growth companies in rapidly changing and/or emerging markets.
"3. it does seem possible, if one has good discipline, to take advantage of short-term market fluctuations and establish reasonable positions in such companies.
"4. it does not seem possible to predict anything in the short term, nor the macro stuff with any precision over the medium term.
"5. given all this, it makes sense to buy in at appropriate times and hold for the long term (unless/until the fundamental story changes), ignoring everything else.
"6. anything that makes it difficult to do (5) with equanimity (leverage, overconcentration, insufficient reserves, whatever) should be avoided like the plague.
"no rocket science, in other words, just common sense. but then, common sense is underrated, I've always found."
tekboy/Ares@sadderbutwiser.pov |
