The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

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Nov 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: marc ultra who wrote (772)	3/17/2001 10:16:34 AM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) of 10065

Marc You raise a great many issues: I think I have to start on the basis of the long term timing model which has been extraordinarily good. Bob said he was looking at a bear that could reach 40-70% in the NASDAQ. My take on the long-term model is more moderated. He went to 60% cash in January. Therefore, I will say at that time he was 60% correct and 40% incorrect based upon what has transpired. Increasing his exposure with CTR2 worsens this ratio. The Nasdaq. Bob early in the winter / spring period said his model did not forecast the Nasdaq and that Nasdaq was a sector not a market with little trading history behind it. According to DavidK the first mention of a worsening Nasdaq was only after the fact in July 2000. I give Bob no credit for foreseeing the Nasdaq decline until after it was well under way although he did question PE ratios consistently throughout 2000 but no Nasdaq specific calls were made. maybe we'll still get a huge CTR to close to 3000 and then enter a final plunge to 1500 or below. Would be ideal if we recognized it, eased out near the top and sat in a bunch of cash for moabo Maybe. I believe this is still Bob's most probable scenario. Taken in light of the rather mediocre calls Bob has made this year specifically, CTR1, Utek, and CTR2 why should I believe this scenario is likely to play out? Comments? The other big issue in my mind is with these huge losses, and at least the short term indicators proving a flop, will Bob's model still recognize moabo? Excellent question. No answers here. At the moment we have unwittingly been turned into buy and hold investors in a bear market. The market makes higher highs over time. A buy and hold investor makes out extremely well over time. Time heals all wounds. I firmly believe that, as I have posted previously, these Federal Reserve rate cuts coming at a fast and furious pace plus two trillion dollars on the sidelines will fuel a market explosion going forward. These rate cuts will be the catalyst of a strong equity market going forward as unlikely as it may seem as you read this. The economy seems fundamentally strong. I think all systems are go and this is the main reason why I believe we will miss a third and final leg of a bear market after a CTR. Just my thoughts...

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