I'm gonna try to stick it out, although I don't have a good feeling about the rate cut stuff.
If the talking heads keep up the rhetoric and keep pumping up expectations of 75 or even a 100 basis point cut and Big Al decides on 25, then we tank. Even if they come in with 75, I suspect the impact will be minimal. I just don't know how to read it.
What I did do a while ago was to go back and look at the last time the stochastics went and stayed under 20 this long. They were under the 20 line for 24 days with a resulting 12% drop in OEX. So far, we are at day 18 in this one and the price drop has been 13.5%, so I gotta believe that with the doji's on the NAZ and the fact that Don has a class 1 buy on just about everything.....
Also on the weekly OEX I have a closing Marabozu, almost. Usually when I have a closing Marabozu the next candle is the opposite colour.
So, the bottom line is that my technicals tell me up and a 38% retracement on OEX for this last drop puts us at 609 and the 50% retracement, which has been more common, is at 617.
So, short term I'm looking for a pop, longer term, I dunno... If I can just get an uptrend line on something other than a five minute chart to hold then I would have something to base a logical rational decision on. BWTH!
The talking heads just poped up a graphic that said Gates has lost 36 Billion, or -45%, in the last 12 months. Whoosh.
I've got to echo the sentiment from Don's post this morning, if this puppy breaks to the downside I will definitely sell because this will, IMHO, fore tell a market crash or some reasonable semblance of one.
Just another opinion. barf. gg
Good luck Gersh,
Paul Kellam |
