Dude, I know you addressed your question to Bearic von Bobernov, but what trendline are you thinking of? I can't draw one that wasn't definitively broken, with a bullet - or a big red dagger of a down stick - last week. By my calculations, the previous week closed just about right on it, but any last bullish hope that it might hold or that a penetration below it might merely represent a downside feint (a massive stop run), seems to have been answered. By my measurements, it was not only violated, it was blasted - gapped right through. Along with all the other former support lines that would now probably offer resistance, that trendline ought to offer resistance even in the event that some future bear market rally manages to break through the gap. As one might expect, the action last week repeatedly failed, at the bottom of that gap (2025 -30 area - also the trendline area), which was previously marked out as strong-looking support - double support converted into double resistance. (Provided for some of the highest probability, least difficult short sales ever on Thursday, by the way.) An easy reversal back up over this level would be a technical miracle. It's hard for me to imagine a chart pattern making a more definitively negative statement.
The trendline, along with the bull market it supported for a decade, is dead (as support). Long live the trendline (as resistance)!
Take out your l-t Nas chart: Friday closed right on the '98 shelf - last high prior to the big '98 down move that culminated in the October crash. Next lower support would be around 1760 ('97 shelf, upper level of congestion around early '98 lows, and reaction high prior to October crash). Though like others I'm expecting some kind of rally sometime soon to slow this parabolic descent, the potential support levels (downside targets) below 1760 are pretty easy to make out. |
