The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

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Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (775)	3/17/2001 1:36:36 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) of 10065

Mr. GJ: Great Post! RE: ". I give Bob no credit for foreseeing the Nasdaq decline until after it was well under way" You could argue that he incorporated the NASDAQ decline into his forecasts when he projected the NAZ 4200-4400 area target for the top of the first counter-trend rally. Since NAZ had already fallen from 5000, I definitely agree with this point. RE: "he did question PE ratios consistently throughout 2000" Yes and last summer he forecasted PE multiple compression and downside earning pre-announcements and disappointments into year 2001. The only way I could see him justifying a long position in QQQ last October is the reasoning that the NASDAQ at that time was very oversold and that counter-trend rallies are solely based on market internals. In retrospect, it would have been safer to advise subscribers to go short QQQ or in a short mutual fund (ie. RYDEX Ursa..) in the NAZ 4200-4400 area thereby going with the market trend, not against it. RE: "CTR2 - why should I believe this scenario is likely to play out?" The main reason is because few still believe it will happen since whatever bounces we've had have fallen way short and have disappointed. People will be expecting another disappointing bounce after the FED lowers rates again this coming week and traders will act accordingly dumping calls and buying puts. Wouldn't it be interesting if they all got faked out and the market continued up this time rallying all the ways up the the NAZ 2800-3000 area ? Doesn't the market often do the opposite of what the masses expect it will do ? There's your reason, Mr. GJ. RE: "will Bob's model still recognize moabo?...No answers here." He, the only thing we have to go on is the last MOABO at DOW 777 in August of 1982. He was astute enough to get that right. I'd bet he can get MOABO right, but who knows like you say. RE: "FED rate cuts will be the catalyst of a strong equity market going forward.... The economy seems fundamentally strong...this is the main reason I believe we will miss a third ... leg of a bear market after a CTR." Like FED rate hikes, cuts normally take 12-15 months to impact the economy. Just heard a report that Japanese banks plan to sell some U.S securities to repatriate funds into their banking system. Will the depressing effect on interest rates of U.S. repurchases of public debt be offset by the effect of Japanese bank sales of investments in U.S securities thus forcing interest rates up (instead of down as expected)? We shall see, but if rates rise unexpectedly, that could trigger a third leg panic down to MOABO. Also, suppose corporate earnings don't improve for a longer than expected period. Suppose proposed tax cuts don't get enacted due to congressional gridlock this summer by those seeking to make the new President look bad. I'm not ready to give up on the idea of leg three yet for these reasons and other possible exogenous events on the horizon. FWIW, P

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