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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 121.93+0.8%Jan 9 4:00 PM EST
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To: russwinter who wrote (65952)3/17/2001 4:22:49 PM
From: goldsheet  Read Replies (2) of 116845
 
The article looks good. He ask the same questions as I have "mine supply should decline ... but when", and his chart shows a modest decline by 2004 (about 10%) He forecasts $281 for gold in 2001, while I forceasted $275 (average for 1999 and 2000 was $279)

The Gold Eagle market did indeed die, and the money did not go into another gold bullion coin. Y2K hype sales in 199/2000 took sales above historical averages, leaving plenty of market overhang. Distributors did not need to order 2001 coins given the readily availble excess 1999 and 2000 coins in the secondary market.

While mentioning Y2K, I was one of the most bearish posters on silver in 1999. I said that after Y2K hype silver would go back under $5 and eventually get back into the $4.50 area (FMV). Apparently I was not bearish enough. I am remain one of the few folks not excited about the silver supply/demand gap. Silver demand has remained flat for several years, mine production continues to rise, and the silver gap is probably under 100moz and closing. Gaps do persist for extended time periods without the price rising, with the gold gap being the best example of this. Somehow it gets filled every year, total supply = total demand
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