Bullsky: inflation, or deflation ?
re: that chart you posted on the CRB...
Check out the same chart - on the "weekly" vs the "daily"
futures.tradingcharts.com
- look to the left of the "weekly" chart - where the double bottom off of CRB 185ish led to the breakout to CRB 220.
- the same type of pattern, a double bottom off of CRB 220 is argueably forming here & could be bullish for an upward move in the CRB.
... now; I would have preferred that 220 held, vs the small break to 216; but - if 216-220 holds & the CRB bases & begins an upward move - I wouldn't rule out a STRONG upward move for the CRB.
Money supply & Easy Credit certainly lean to the inflationary side and there are some rumblings in steel, copper & a few other industrial commodities with some similar supply/capacity constraints to Oil & Gas....
It could get real interesting... how about rising commodity prices, wages & benefit pressure's into a still rapidly slowing economy ? - now what was the term for that again (VBG) ? Mooseflation ? Buckflation, or was it Stttttttttttaaaaggggfffflllllaaaatttttiiiiiooooonnnn (VBG) ?
Fox TV had their weekly show with Brenda Buttner - I'm not sure if it's still "theStreet.com" show, or not... anyway; a few guests are talking $10 Cisco etc... for valuation/multiple AND technical reasons.
Also - two, or three of the guests - all spoke about something I am hearing as well; that one of the BIGGIE Tech Funds is in BIG TROUBLE & is liquidating & will be out of business by summer - and their take is that even with a .50bp, or .75 bp fed cut - the rally may initially get some traction - but; their is HUGE VOLUME overhang in Big Cap Tech to still be sold & sold steadilly...
- food for thought ?
Also; 2,3 guests this am - all agreed & called the cycle rollover for the Oilpatch stocks - mentioning the high PE's of SLB HAL et al... and they have a valid point imo. Remember we MUST have these non-speciality Funds & Institutions stay in the patch & even for more mo-mo money to flow in; to have ANY hope of new highs in the OSX.
One big overhang against that probability; is the potential outflow from Oils back to Tech by the mo-mo money...
Perhaps the best case scenario we can hope for; is a .75 bp Fed cut next week with a total mo-mo exodus from the OSX stocks (giving us another 100ish buying/re-entry opp) and that money flowing into the NAZ/TEch - but then getting hit with that Institutional Selling - having the rally sold...and sold hard. Then part duex; will be for the OSX stocks - especially the drillers to just blow earnings estimates out of the water .... bringing all that mo-mo money back out of tech & right back to Oils...
That's our only hope imo... otherwise if Oil Prices don't hold & cheating starts & why shouldn't it here.... it's all about "revenue" - why would/should OPEC hold together here when it's sooooooo tempting to bump supply a bit into falling prices to keep revenue.
This is OPEC's first "real" baptism by fire test of their Price Band policy... and I think the Street is going to take a "show me" attitude.
I also think that the Nat Gas story is NOT enough to keep the OSX cranking... Oil prices must hold.
E&P wise; once again - with lower 2002 eps/cfps numbers - than 2001 numbers; someone, anyone - please give me a case for the Nat Gas stocks going to new highs above "our" Dec 31 exit call here on this thread ?
re: The NAZ/Tech bottom:
I still think patience is rewarded & rewarded "LARGE" - in times like these & I'm holding out for either an absolute October 1998-esque Volume-Capitulation; or undeniable, tangible proof of a soft US landing & a fundamental turnaround in Tech Cap Ex & earnings... otherwise - I pass... not enough reward, for the risk & trying to pick a bottom & trading long into a literal non-stop 3,000 point collapse is a fools game.
Still think the MOABO is coming... let's hope the Oilpatch can hold 115ish into the face of what I feel will be a new wave of nightmarish misses & warnings from Q1 Tech reporting - replete with a new wave of Nortel-esque type news & cooresponding collapses/implosions....
For the hell of it; if I had to pick a bottom in the NAZ/Tech "timewise" - I would say it will be sometime in April off of Q1 Tech reporting - with 2,3 Nortel-esque type misses & guidance from "name" companies creating a final "throw in the towel" type of sentiment reaction.
The story in tech is that late 2001, early 2002 numbers may have to be taken down & taken down bigtime... still too much money & too much valuation riding on a "V" recovery for the 2nd half of this year in Tech & I don't think that's in the cards...
I really think Cramer has nailed this transition; as Secular & not Cyclical and that Tech "aint" coming back valuationwise and that people had better be looking at drugs, consumer cyclicals, some financials, tobacco's etc...
PS S: .... even Gary Smith the Chartist from Real Money/TheStreet.Com says NEM is interesting & that the golds (damn them) are looking like they are pulling out of a longterm downtrend... whodathunkit ? |
