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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME
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To: Mark Konrad who wrote (49309)3/17/2001 5:12:17 PM
From: DlphcOracl  Read Replies (1) of 57584
 
Mark K.: I agree with most of your post, especially the part about eschewing day-trading in this hypervolatile market and buying for the long haul. Five years from now, we will look upon this as the first extraordinary investing opportunity of the new millennium.

Two quibbles with your post:

(1): I still see little reason to be buying tech stocks between now and April 15th. The pressure on the NASDAQ is still downward, the next earnings warning season and set of earnings reports will be quite poor, and tax-selling will put further downward pressure on the NASDAQ. Even if your charts find a few tech gems, they rarely are able to swim upstream against a torrent of poor earnings reports.

(2): I do not think the NASDAQ will bounce along the bottom for two or three years when the Fed is rapidly expanding the money supply and aggressively cutting interest rates. There has never been a period where the market has not been higher 12 months later after a third successive interest rate cut since the Great Depression (I think that is correct). Although it is hackneyed, "Don't Fight the Fed" cuts both ways. While I do not see the NASDAQ recovering quickly, it will probably be at least 20% higher than Friday's close by the end of the year.
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