SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 670.92+0.1%Nov 7 4:00 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Casaubon who wrote (72504)3/17/2001 6:11:07 PM
From: KymarFye  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
Maybe later I'll post a different take on the same trendlines. At this point I'd say: 1) I think his charts are helpful, but by my lights AA fudges a bit too much in favor of parallelism, and may therefore miss some other intersections and alternative lines. 2) Anchoring the longest trend line from the absolute low may not be the most meaningful way to draw the line. There's a body of argument (or at least a tradition) that favors use of the low following the first reaction high after a major low. 3) A trendline with multiple touches is held to be more likely valid than a very long trendline based on two touches. I'd consider this so even if the former includes some violations followed by re-confirmations - as in AA's solid blue channel line which somewhat corresponds to the "early 90s/70-80s" line I mentioned in my previous post. 4) If AA's lowest trendline (connecting the Nixon low to the Saddam low and extending forward) does prove significant, there's no reason to believe that it MUST do so this year, at the level mentioned. Such an event can't be excluded from the realm of possibility, of course. I see no reason as yet to consider it a probability.

There is already substantial discussion in the media, paralleling discussion in this board, that, in suggesting the era of high returns is over, has implicitly pronounced the great Bull Market dead. I'm surprised the second part of this theme hasn't been taken up more dramatically somewhere.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News