To:George S. Cole who wrote (13115)
From: Zeev Hed Friday, Mar 16, 2001 4:53 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 13159
I would not be surprised to see a 62% retracement of the recent fall (counting from January high of 2950 to let say a low of 1850), yields a rally to just above 2500 (2532). It could stall at 2475 ( recent by now well broken support). I do not have like Hays, 1100, I have 1400 as the low (probably both in August and October). The way I see it, in order to set up a real strong bottom here, we need real discouragement, a strong bear rally getting the public to regain some faith in stocks is required. At the top I see a kind of inverted W, just above 2500, in mid April, a decline into late May probably holding above 2000 (but I fear the DOW could breach 9600), another rally peaking early in July (after the fourth), and then a devastating "summer doldrums". My current calculations for the August bottom is 1632 for the NAZ and I "reserve" the ultimate 1400 for October. (g). Mind you that all assumes that 1850 will hold, that does not seems likely if we get a black Monday. My Fear is that the turnips 1632 number may come Monday or Tuesday morning.
Zeev |
