Anecdotal Evidence
I sure do enjoy this thread, but I'm primarily a lurker because I don't often feel I have something to contribute that doesn't waste time. The last couple of years have been good to me. I rode some tech stocks to good gains but last March sold them all after reading some of Bill Fleckenstein's articles. Since then I've been shorting MU, and QQQ and also riding the 5-6 week up/down cycle in PDG.
I talk stocks occasionally with friends, all of whom are unsophisticated investors, just to get a feel for what the average stock investor is "thinking".
One friend who trades pretty frequently (his daughter is a stock broker and I think she's getting her inheritance early) has started to pull in his horns but still believes the market will turn around.
One work colleague's husband got a $100,000 inheritance a couple years ago and put it into CSCO. Last March she was waiting for one more "double" before retiring. I told her at $80, $60, and $40 to sell. Now when I tell her it'll drop some more she says it's too late to sell, she's in for the long term (that's a retirement plan?).
Another colleague, who'd been putting his 401K in "income" stuff switched it to stocks a year ago. Of course that was bad timing. He now says he's "glad" that it's down so that new money is buying stocks at the low point and he'll be positioned for the next rise.
My brother is losing money - he's still thinking long and hasn't yet realized that he's swimming upstream.
Another friend is trying to "time" the market with his mutual funds - going back and forth between Money Market and Stock funds. However, he still believes that we are on the verge of bottoming out and starting up again and it affects his timing.
I've tried preaching some of the stuff I hear here, on Prudent Bear, in Fleckenstein's column, and so on - but my acquaintances don't believe it, don't want to believe it, or can't accept the idea of a bear market continuing much longer.
That's my evidence for what it's worth - not much in the way of capitulation.
If anybody has sites they go to that give more information on Precious metals please let me know. I'm interested in understanding more about that area so that I can make an "informed" opinion about which way the tide is going. With stocks it seems a no-brainer, the tide is still on its way "out". |
