Bosque:
Thanks for the sympathy. I didn't really get trapped, just burned a little. When I saw things running the wrong way, I cleared out.
>> they trade like they are being dumped. <<
See the post by rkrw in the biotech valuation thread, and work backwards through that discussion? This reminds me of (??) 1Q '97 when Amerindo was in trouble, and everyone knew it. Brainless bailing, with some shorting ahead of it. Regardless, it's creating bonkers bargains. This is the third time in the last thirty months that one has had an op to build wealth from the sector. The gyrations frustrate me, but riding the volatility isn't boring.
>> Any biotechs you can't believe are selling for what they are and willing to share? <<
Nah, I haven't had very good luck in this thread. My suggestions that have "sold" here have ended up sucking big time. I like lots of weird stuff. I manage a very small account for my Aunt and Uncle. Any appreciation will be divided among my kids and the children of their other nieces and nephews. I haven't sold anything in that account for months. I looked at it tonight, and it's gorgeous. And, while it took a bit of a hit last November/December, It's also *up* for the YTD.
I also like most of the stocks which you mentioned, although I've never been a fan of the three letter one. BTRN? I wouldn't say that it's not meeting expectations, I'd say that their partner was guilty of "invented here" blindness and of moving like a damn snail. One heck of an opportunity, as I still feel that MEDI-507 could be huge. But..... Eligix and a subsequent need for cash really puts some tarnish on it. GLIA? It'll be interesting to see if anyone ends up in prison. I can't believe that they didn't manage to split into two companies before this garbage got out of hand. I have no opinion..... from what I know, could be a ten-bagger or bankrupt and out of business by the end of the year.
>> Overall, appears the biotechs without cash reserve are going to in big trouble and need to be taken over. <<
Trouble, yes. Dilution trouble. However, those with good science can grab small chunks of cash to keep exciting programs moving forward. "Bridge" money won't hurt too much. BTRN shouldn't have any trouble landing cash without too much disruption, IMO. And, I feel that the disruption is built into the current price. MEDI, running five trials in psoriasis, is scheduled to transition to phase III in psoriasis (but it'll be tough, IMO) and to phase II in RA this year.
Cheers! Rick |
