Mikle, last year, during the April post debacle Rally, I had May 18th as the low, it did not happen, it took another four fie trading days with almost every one having a tic reading of -1100 or worth to finally put the low that then got us to 1000 points rise (to 4300 if memory serves), I see a lot of similarity here, the 9th and 12 gave us more than -1000, a small interruption( two days) and another two days, , almost enough, and depending on Asian and European markets, it could be, but I just did not see the "throwing the towel" in yet. The market (the fed futures) has already priced in 75 basis points cut, thus anything less than that (which I fear AG will have to do, or we pay the price later) will be a dissapointment, hopefully enough, to generate wash out conditions, thus my suggestion that Wednesday, sometime during the day might be a better time to try and exploit a bear market rally. Have been wroong before and will again, so take it with a grain of salt.
Zeev |
