Allan,
I raise your chart with one more.
ottographs.com
I have taken some liberties with drawing the H&S just to avoid over complication of the matter.
I like your chart, and this one, because it fits my guestimate on how things will play out! Seems to me that FOMC (before or after) is likely to be a catalyst for a move; in the event that the market rallies, surely the cuts earlier this year, and eventual market direction, will serve as a cautionary backdrop for market participants.
1 - Rally to resistance, and a clunk
2 - Rally to resistance and a believable move up
3 - Clunk right away
In my mind there is really no way to game this market, at this juncture, except for day by day, so I don't bother trying. For now, its far better to sell a failed rally than it is to buy a failed decline. That picture will change eventually but its highly unlikely that it is changing now. |
