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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: StockOperator who wrote (3262)3/18/2001 3:32:57 AM
From: Michael Watkins  Read Replies (5) of 52237
 
SO, Sure are a lot of folks believing that a bottom is closer than farther. Things that make me go hmnn...

I took a quick look through SPX over the years and found the 1967 - 1970 period looked similar to what we are looking at now on the SPX. While nothing ever plays out exactly the same, the whole purpose of this exercise is to show that anything is possible. I could have used 1970 to 1974 just as easily. The important thing to note is that both instances the major trend up saw new highs; only to have price drop back down to the previous major swing low.

Surely people then didn't expect the move down would retrace all the way back down.

I have taken some liberties with drawing the H&S just to avoid over complication of the picture. The potential remains the same in my opinion:

ottographs.com

1 - Rally to resistance, and a clunk
2 - Rally to resistance and a believable move up
3 - Clunk right away

In my mind there is really no way to game this market, at this juncture, except for day by day, so I don't bother trying. For now, its far better to sell a failed rally than it is to buy a failed decline. That picture will change eventually but its highly unlikely that it is changing now.
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