Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (3299)	3/18/2001 11:47:09 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) of 52237

>>Sure are a lot of folks believing that a bottom is closer than farther<< I think we are closer to a bottom but that assumption is based on "time" and NOT "price". There are a lot of cycle turn dates approaching. Note the targets for bounces around 1500 NDX and 1100 NDX. The 1100 target would be around another 38% down from here. Still I just don't see a 1929 type economy ahead. Unemployment isn't rampant and I don't see it getting too much worse. Fuel prices are stabilizing although this summer I expect some serious electric problems due to the low snow fall this winter out here in the west where hydro power is going to be seriously impacted. GDP growth is slowing but it still has yet to go negative and looking at the history of rate cuts and the markets we are so far following the script fairly well. I think the Fed's target rate of 2.5% is attainable. I am looking forward to investing and not trading as much. The greater fool style trading of the last few years was profitable yet it was a crazy way to make money. Basically we all knew we were over paying and yet could count on some other fool to over pay by more down the road. I think we will go back to being able to invest on more realistic expectations of good companies and less manic swings eventually and I view that as healthy. It was discouraging before to find a good company and not have it move because everyone was chasing the latest fad that was never going to earn a cent. Real earnings were being ignored on the hopes of future promises. I bought some stocks in the last few years that never moved yet had 30% growth and were below book. I have to admit I finally dumped them since I didn't want my money sitting doing nothing. I was telling Don I should have stayed in them since in the last year they have suddenly become "discovered" and have moved up smartly. This is the way the market was supposed to work. The 95 - 2000 craze happens once every generation and we finally are putting an end to this latest chapter and should return to a more rational market until the next batch of fools that choose to ignore history start playing the markets. Unfortunately I don't think we are completely there yet reading around the stock specific threads where there is still too much hope and unreasonable expectations. However I also don't think the market is going to die. We just have to lower our aim a bit. Good Luck, Lee

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