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Strategies & Market Trends : NetCurrents NTCS
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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (6248)3/18/2001 3:12:04 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) of 8925
 
Nice charts Michael.

There is a stunning lack of concern here (not this thread per se) for the longer-term picture. Folks seem to believe that if they just take a really long view they will be alright.

I was on another thread late last week discussing the possibility that this could take years to work itself out. I suggested 10 years just to get people thinking longer-term, but my personal opinion is that it could be longer. As you know, there are good examples in a variety of long-term charts, some from American markets, that show long periods where price does not regain and hold old highs for many years.

I believe that there is a decent chance that we are beginning a correction and bear market that could rival the great ones of all time. If prior excess is any indication, then we are certainly setup for this.

For some reason people continue to cling to the notion that it's different this time. Not surprising since this was a widely held view in previous bear markets. Here's something that the eager dip-buyers might want to reflect on -- btw, in the following list I do not count the brief headfakes in 1972 and 1989:

From the 1929 high to new highs in 1954: 26 years
From the 1966 high to new highs in 1983: 17 years
From the 1987 high to new highs in 1990: 3 years

I am not a permabear and I will not be stubborn. I hope I can listen carefully to it so I won't hold my bearish views much longer than I have to. Having said that, imo, this is no time to be buying the dip for anything other than really short holds.

Cheers.
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