I know someone at Columbia Univ who's working with 2 profs on those weather pattern derivatives, I mean that is BIZARRE!!!! :-)
10 year bear, I don't even know what use it is for people to try and predict time periods. Nobody's ever right, and where does the exercise lead? Like you said, let's work with what's in front of us. Anyway:
Bear markets have lasted, on average, about 13 months, according to Ned Davis Research. But they vary widely.
The shortest bear market -- 45 days -- was in 1998 with the Nasdaq's brief slide. The longest outside the Great Depression: about 2 1/3 years, between late 1939 and early 1942.
This bear market already is considered about a year old, even though stocks overall haven't been down 20% that long.
Mellody Hobson, president of Chicago's Ariel Capital Management, notes that "there's no bottom to 'worse.'" Investors who rushed to Wall Street for the first time in the 1990s "are now showing some real fear," she says. Based on that, she doesn't think the turnaround will come quickly. |
