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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: Goodale who wrote (49339)	3/18/2001 11:16:30 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (5) of 57584

Sounds like you're buying into some heavy propaganda. Not to mention ignoring the obvious, that we had 7.75 years of prosperity and now it's going downhill really fast. I'd blame a lot of it on the internet collapse and I'm not blaming anyone for that, but let's also blame the whole national consciousness being at least ill-at-ease if not freaked-out about the fact that we have a president who lost the popular vote and got in on a legal technicality. He's also not showing any real leadership or intelligence when it comes to the markets. He's just doing what he was "hired" to do, stubbornly push an agenda for his supporters. Deregulation of business and polluters, high oil prices, tax cuts mainly for the rich and tons of military and satellite surveillance spending (another reason to buy LOR though most goes to BA). If he fights campaign finance reform I'll be against him ALL the way. Right now I'm still hoping he's halfway "compassionate" (moderate). SO far though nothing positive. I have also lost faith in Bush's tax cut plans ever helping the market. At first I was optimistic and even trumpeted them here on these boards. But read the fine print and you'll see it creates more problems than it solves, except for those with large estates to pass along. So it's a "rich kid's" bill mainly. To everyone else it makes very little difference and will create more deficits or social cuts. Bush's message is becoming irrelevant if not harmful. If the market believed in Bush's tax cut plan it would be rallying or steady whenever he makes a speech. Instead his speeches make no difference or even throw salt on the wounds. I think the market's rejecting the tax cut plan as a deficit-creator and I think Greenspan agrees. We WILL get a tax cut though. Just too late and too small to make any difference. Bush's big tax cut is "dead" in the Senate so they say. So he'll have to compromise. With sinking surplus projections it will be fiscally irresponsible to cut taxes much. Now the question is, what can be done about our recession and market dive-bomb? That's my only concern. Greenspan seems to be the only one who can stop the pessimism (resulting in shorts have a field day) and right the ship with a major over-the-top rate cut. Just talked to a pro trader and he's gung ho on Greenspan cutting .75 or 1.0 this week then more and more. Hope he's right. He predicts shorts are going to get burned bad, those who don't cover by tomorrow. He also agreed with me that stocks like LU at less than $10 is a ridiculously oversold phenomenon which will correct itself very soon. He thinks we might see more lows next month but first we'll see a monster rally from out of the depths, and that there are very big boys grouping together to bleed the shorts dry. He notes tons of major covering happening beneath the surface Thursday and Friday while individual shorts are hanging in there largely unaware. A perfect set-up for a robbery of suckers. Makes sense to me. If I was a billionaire manipulator now I'd try to do the same. The shorts are the ones holding the money now and have been far too greedy and over-confident. They're the easiest to fleece. We'll see. This pro bought CSCO heavily on Friday and will buy more tomorrow right before the rate cut. He also said the .50 rate cut isn't even priced in anymore things have gone so low. He may be wrong or right but it's going to be interesting. I may buy more tomorrow. Might jump on LU under 10 if I can get it, or else a few others. Last big rate cut the perfect day to sell was the day AFTER the cut in the mid afternoon. That's my target. If we get a 10%-20% pop I may sell all then come back for more after the next sell-off. Got to start getting smart here and play the waves better. Massively oversold condition now IMHO. Let's see if I'm right.

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