Re: Mulling it over
Not offering a position here, just some thoughts..
- Did we avoid a "Black Friday" merely because of options expiration and\or the uncertainty of FOMC Tuesday?(Big Al's final threat to the dancing bears). So now "black Mon? Tue? Wed?
-Or is this what the capitulation feels like at a market bottom?
-If this is the markets' reaction to merely slowing rates of (obviously unsustainable) earnings growth, then what should we expect for negative earnings?
Re: the margin call/ short squeeze dichotomy
-If the market is poised for a sharp move in either direction, wouldn't it take a multiday rally to bring in the effects of a short squeeze acceleration?
-Conversely, aren't we already under at least the beginnings of margin call pressure?
Events:
-If there is a LTCM or Japan collapse situation imminent, why aren't the financials\brokers looking worse? GS and MER were up 5 and 3 points respectively, last week.
-Or is that a head and shoulders on the BKX?
-Is the SOX the last line of defense for the techs? Wouldn't an up day today give us an approximate morning star on AMAT?
Stategies:
-Get out all together or
-Buy protective puts on holdings to give a temporary floor or
-Buy puts on PE absurdities (eg RIMM)
-Whatever happened to "short against the box"
-Tighten stops (What about the morning gap down?)
OR
-What a buying opportunity this is??GG
Personally, I trimmed several holdings on Friday, Got too greedy with my MSFT calls (set my exit 1/4 pt too high),
still have QQQs (gulp), now about 65% cash, 10% XAU, and 25% nervous.
Good Luck
-John
PS Didn't mean to appear too flippant last week when so many good dudes were taking on serious water.
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