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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop
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To: AllansAlias who wrote (34844)3/19/2001 9:38:50 AM
From: jambo-bwana  Read Replies (1) of 35685
 
When the bottom comes there will be nobody talking about bottoms or even suggesting that we buy equities

Very true and one need not go very far back to see what you are saying.

I get the impression that you have been in the markets a while and if so you will recall what happened in August 1982 when the bull market began. The Dow was in the high 700s - and people were forecasting depression and all sorts of doomsday scenarios. Paul Volcker had raised interest rates to astronomical levels to wring out inflation - the long bond was yielding over 13% at its peak. Henry Kauffman, then with Salomon Brothers, who was considered to be a guru of sorts when it came to prognosticating interest rates then made a statement that interest rates would start to come down and that the peak in interest rates had been seen. On that day the Dow rallied 38 points or about 5%. There was general disbelief that this was more than a one day quirk. The Dow had reached close to 1000 before people began to take the rally seriously.

When the bottom is reached this go around, I suspect that we will see the same thing and what will finally trigger the start of a new bull market will be something as innocuous as Kauffman's forecast for interest rates.
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