primary bond dealers sampled said 11 to 10 they expect 75 bpt cut
with 1 saying too close to call
GreenSpurn has never cut more than 50
he has long preferred 25's
he certainly does not like to admit errors
his data is poor, his models are archaic, his decisions suspect
I hope Fed cuts 75
I see the FedFunds rate as 105 bpt above 3-mo TBill yield now
as for the "experts" assessing blame, I believe they dont expect the Federal Reserve to forecast
instead, I believe they expect the Fed to react
thus they expect wilder swings to be "normal"
personally I believe GreenScrotum wants a recession
he regards it as the ultimate tool for eradicating excesses in the entire economy
stock prices, esp tech stocks, real estate prices, internet valuations, internet business models, biotech forward expectations, paychecks to wetbehindears MBAs, paychecks to brokerage house traders, VC returns on equity, and even the pace of revolutionary change in the information age
/ jim |
