OT
Actually, I see a bigger bubble than 10 years ago. Overbuilt too. Of course it's different. Layoffs are scary.
Jim,
You see a bigger bubble? Where do you see a bigger bubble?
I don't have access to figures on the net but I can tell you that the West coast is not experiencing a bubble with the possible exception of SV. Office vacancy rates in Seattle are less than 5%, apartments less than 3%. In LA office vacancies are less than 10% as of Feb., the best numbers in 10 years. LA apartment vacancies are less than 3%. San Diego is sporting comparable figures. Same with Portland, OR.
In all those markets construction never returned to late 80's levels. The only segment that is possibly overbuilt is retail. Even in SV, the unemployment rate in Feb. was at 1.7%, down from 2.4% last year; the state's is 4.5%, both the lowest in 30 years.
Further, the National Association of Homebuilders' lastest survey indicates that the index measuring current sales rose 6 pts and the index measuring sales for the next 6 months rose by 4 pts. Both indexes indicate that current and future sales are expected to improve. {see link below]
While I don't have numbers for other markets, I know from the magazines I get that market conditions are similiar in most markets with only a few exceptions...the usual suspects, Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, etc. So please, show me where you get your info...I really would like to know.
ted
inman.com |
