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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: Razorbak who wrote (1943)	3/19/2001 4:02:16 PM
From: BigBull	of 23153

Manufacturing production numbers continue to fall. So current rate reductions have not yet filtered through there yet. Imo the big headwind facing this economy is debt, personal and corporate. It is the reason the fed is desperately attempting to monetise same. Will it be successful? Will the Andrea Gail fed overcome the 100 foot worldwide debt tidal wave? No question but that the throttle is pushed to flank speed. That is the question that needs to be answered over the next 3 - 6 months. Re services sector. Still strong. But for how long? A big chunk of the services sector is financial services. Imo if the the dow decisively cracks the trading range to the down side I think you'll see layoffs start to really accelerate at brokerage houses and banks. Imo the risks to the financial system are not trivial and should not blithely be discounted. Asia is really starting to implode now. Australia and Japan in recession. Indian and Korean growth decelerating rapidly. Should some major Asian credits seize up we could see a domino effect through the world financial system as so many large banks are now international in scope. Brazil and Argentina now showing serious seam splits. Brazil recently halted a debt auction due to currency problems. Indonesia about to go "poofie in the night". <g> Recent inflation stats coming out of Europe may mean delayed rate cuts there. Europe however, is imo just now peaking economically. The 1, 2, 3, pattern I spoke of previously is working to a t. Come June they will slow markedly. June is the convergence month when all world economies are on a down slope. That is when the risk for serious debt bombs to go off is highest. The recent fed pump had better work, and soon, because time is running out. BTW I think the latest BK law working through congress and that Bush seems so eager to sign could be a major major mistake. The timing is simply atrocious.

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