re: "How do you have any more idea that this is a bear market rally than that it might not be"
1. because we are in a bear market, and, as long as that is true, all rallies should be expected to fail. When I see evidence, on the charts or in the news, that the bear market is ending, then (and only then) will I expect rallies not to fail.
2. because, in the last 3 months, I've listened to about 127 semis, telecoms, semi-equips, telecom-equips, etc., warn of worsening business conditions. Everyone is saying demand is weakening, and forward earnings estimates have come down. And everyone (except Intel, and they won't be able to buck the trend much longer) is cutting capital budgets.
3. because I see no good reason for QCOM to be immune to this general and overwhelming trend. QCOM hasn't warned, and forward consensus EPS estimates haven't come down. QCOM is part of an extremely small group of techs that haven't warned. NTAP, JNPR. Who else?
4. because QCOM is dependant, for their profits, on other companies continuing the wireless buildout, and those companies look a lot less able to do that, compared to 9 months ago, or even 3 months ago.
JS@holdingbutworried.pov |
