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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: IceShark who wrote (82464)3/20/2001 7:58:05 AM
From: smallcapmaven  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
As far as CMOS goes I don't think that there is a bottom...The warnings from KLAC and SLR only exasperate an already poor situation...I have changed my forecast for 2001 to be a earnings of ($0.10)...Last Q CMOS had $43 million in order cancellations...95% of those came from Taiwanese customers...In 2000 70% of the revenue came from Asia, but only 28% in the last Q...IMO the slowdown in the USA will only exasperate this situation...I heard that TER has cut prices and pushed out product in order to take customers...Since the cancellations came very late last Q and were supposed to be based on a supply glut this is proof that there is more to it than a supply glut...Sell into any rally because their warning will be a big one IMO...The cannot be any visibility before the 2nd Q of 2002 so you have a cyclical that is losing money and has no growth trading at a 3X multiple to my revised conservative REVNEUE estimate...There is no bottom for that kind of forecast IMO...
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