Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 328.51

+1.9%

3:59 PM EST

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From: Hayduke	3/20/2001 8:07:33 AM
	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Folks, partly in humor and partly to understand the story that's unfolding, I put the following together. I would be interested in any "stages" that you can add for chip or semi-equip stocks. I remain impressed at how AMAT has held its own and have to think that there is some "denial" still built in there. Are the big money guys really in denial or are they just playing one of the stages? Stages of Tech Stock Denial - Bubble? What bubble? Everyone's in equities so naturally they will increase in value. - Interest rate increases? The big tech companies lots of cash - they don't care about interest rates. And besides, no one can afford not to compete. - OK, so valuations were high. As soon as the Fed lowers rates the stocks will bounce right back. But so far no one is missing earnings, right? - Ooops the Fed waited too long... 1Q01 looks dicey. But excess inventory will be gone sometime in 2Q and the Fed will lower interest rates fast so that by mid-year things will be OK again. And when they are, what a rally we will see! - Ooops, the Fed is lowering too slow! Why are they putting the Market on Weight-watchers! - Uhhhhnnn... looks like this thing will have to play itself out in Europe, too. Could be 4Q before earnings improve. - At last - got those ugly 1Q reports out of the way! But wait, companies actually expect to lose money in 2Q? You mean we won't be back on track until 2002 - maybe!?!?! - Finally - it took longer than any of us thought - but we have bottomed and earnings are positive again. But wait - why are you giving my company such a small P/E ratio? It's a tech stock, right?

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