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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (82700)	3/20/2001 11:04:00 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) of 436258

I'm afraid I'm with you, messing around on the long side a little today. As much as it feels like walking on the railroad tracks with the train whistle sounding in the distance, I think prices are actually loaded into a condition where the risk of significant up from a positive surprise outweigh the profits to be had from the disappointment of the expected outcome. Granted I'm nowhere near net long, but if we do bounce, I'll have dry powder to deploy on favorite targets. Referring to the 1929-33 chart you produced - once the slide had started in earnest, each rate cut stemmed the bloodletting for a few weeks. I've been debating if we've done enough damage to prime the pump for one of the few countertrend rallies, even if this is 1929 all over again. My conclusion is that we're there. Note that EVERY countertrend rally came up to and nicked the low from the previous failed base. A similar pattern here would produce a rally lasting around twenty trading days, with COMPX testing 2300. I'm trying to ignore the funnymentals and get positioned appropriately. BC

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