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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Paul Shread who wrote (3463)3/20/2001 11:28:33 AM
From: JRI  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
Any thoughts?

To:Zeev Hed who wrote (13301)
From: JRI Tuesday, Mar 20, 2001 11:27 AM
Respond to of 13308

Zeev- Until today, I was thinking that we needed a severe fear bottom, in order to give us enough "oompf" to get over 90 log channel (2050-2100)...2250 COMPX...etc...
Now, I am thinking that as long as the Naz shows some guts IF 50 BP is the decision (which I think it will be).....ie., its gonna tank.....but as long as it finds its legs in the mid-1800s or above.....that the lows on top tech CIEN, JNPR, BEAS, etc. are higher than last Fri./Monday...and SOXX stays above 520......

I think that'll be enough to get us a decent rally.....whether it gets to 2250 or 2500....I don't know...

The ONE big fly in the ointment I see in the book-to-bill on Thursday.....it should be simply dreadful.....I am wondering how psychology is going to hold up with that....

In April, I am concerned about redemption of stock to pay taxes....I think that will be weight on the long side...although maybe foreign buying (Japan?) will make up for some of that (although it didn't help last year!)

I probably feel safest thinking we rally from Monday-Friday next week....all others dates, I'm wait-and-see..
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