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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 143.68-4.5%Jan 29 4:00 PM EST
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To: Abner Hosmer who started this subject3/20/2001 2:09:25 PM
From: Michael Collings  Read Replies (3) of 116933
 
Here's my two cents on the gold price....

The upside in the gold price is limited until the credit bubble pops. The credit bubble is much larger than the equity bubble. The almighty dollar won't fall precipitously until the credit markets start failing. I see that as key.

When you owe a thousand dollars, the bank owns you, but when you owe the bank a billion dollars, you own them. I'd keep a close eye on the non-performing loan numbers of the major banks and their reserves for loan losses. That will be key to telling us when the debt bubble is popping. It will also give us the "heads up" (or down) on the dollar. In recent months the non-performing debt numbers have ticked upwards, but is still a small percentage of the loans outstanding. Non-performing debt is a loan that is 90 days or more in arrears. Interestingly the major banks are seeing a much faster increase in non-performing loans than are the regional banks.

Again, I see this as key to the dollar and the POG. It may take another six months to a year before this credit bubble crumbles. In any case, I will wait for the inevitable and sit with gold stocks at these levels.

OT.... I read these boards often and could I ask that the posters please write coherent sentences? A complete sentence is much easier to understand than many of these paraphrasing posts that go on here. Thanks
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