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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: yard_man who wrote (82823)3/20/2001 4:43:03 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
my view is very simple: foreigners have too many dollars, be they private investors or central banks. the US represents 20% of global economic output, but the dollar comprises almost 60% of overseas foreign exchange reserves. this mismatch is just waiting for a spark to set a correction in motion. what will the spark be? i don't know...but clearly the rate differential and increasing economic performance differential with Europe favors a move back into the Euro eventually.
look at a daily chart of the dollar index, with trend lines drawn...still looks to me like it has topped out ALREADY.

oh, one possible reason for a flight out of the dollar would be the increasing perception that the merry pranksters have lost control....which it seems to me, they have.
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