Just to be sure my perspective on your model is on target, I will put forth the following:
Given the 20,000,000 potential viewers, 40% are likely to be actual online viewers.
Then: 40% of 20,000,000 = 8,000,000 online viewers/day.
Of the 8,000,000 online viewers, 10% are likely to be streaming video viewers.
Then: 10% of 8,000,000 = 800,000 streaming video viewers/day.
Since payments are based on per 1000/streams(viewers), then one could say 800,000 divided by 1000 = 800 payable units of streaming video. Or to coin a phrase:
payable units of streaming video=(pusv), then 800pusv/day is the final number.
At this point I could go two different ways:
A) Assume there are no redundant (repeat) viewers included in the 800pusv, Each viewer only views a single video segment per day. In that case I arrive at your $27,000,000,
800 x $95.00 x 365days = $27,740,000/yr. A rather conservative assumption.
B) Suppose on the other hand, I assume each of the streaming video viewers viewed three (3) video segments per day (a rather moderate assumption). Then the calculation increases by a factor of three.
3x 800pusv = 2400pusv. Then 2400x$95x365 = $83,220,000/yr.
Crux of the Question:
For model calculation purposes is one single person on a distribution network that views 1000 video segments/day, the same as 1000 persons on that network (each of which) views one (1) video segment/day?
If the answer is yes, they are the same then I am fairly satisfied with the above. But I think option (A) is too conservative unless we are doing a worse case analysis.
DrD
Comments and Opinions are welcome. |
