Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: AllansAlias who wrote (3609)	3/21/2001 9:48:55 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) of 52237

The Yardeni model is a rather simplified approach- and it has a short history. But gosh, you can hardly argue with it's recent history. It showed the SPX as 70% OVERvalued in early 2000. In hindsight, that was a tremendously good indicator. Not sure I agree that the secular bear will last 1/3 as long as the bull. I'm a firm believer in the 32 year cycle. The top of the cycle (corresponding to the A/D top) would have been in April 1998. That would put the bottom of the cycle in 2014. Of course there should be many shorter term bullish cycles within the period. The government tendency to debase the money to 'stimulate the economy' could result in the markets being flat for an extended period, but still losing ground to inflation- just like in the 1970's. Got disco? <g>

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