<<And disclosure is meaningless....I could've said I had 1000 shares and you wouldn't know the difference.>>
Disclosure provides context. The fact that any poster may not hold the position they say will in time be revealed by inevitable disconnect in their logic, supposed position, and market action.
<<The fact I happen to be even remotely honest only works in my favor.>>
Again, I thank you for your disclosure.
Here is the the crux of our disagreement:
<<... otherwise we'll have to die the death of 1000 cuts until it hits 3%.>>
FED discount at 5.5% is not high, at 6.5% is not high, and of course, at 3.5% is not high, especially in relation to the financial asset inflation rate. At all of these earlier and higher rates, the investors did the rational act: borrow and invest in the stock market.
The problem is not with rates and thus cutting rates has done nothing so far and will not like do anything, except to cause a bigger problem later on. But, we will simply have to wait and see.
<<Overall, the economy is amazingly good condition for having gone through such a spec bubble.>>
You may have spoken too soon. The downward spiral, in rapidity, unemployment, value imploded, sentiment and such are quite breadth taking already. For tech companies and ORCL to go from "we will not be affected by the interest rate rise" to "we do not have visibility to the next few quarters" took less than one quarter in elapsed time.
<<I'm surprised things didn't get worse faster.>>
I am also surprised, but I have always been lacking in patience.
<<My industry is the first to see the signs of a turnaround (media spending). While that hasn't occurred yet, things have levelled off. That's a good sign. It usually signals we've bottomed.>>
This is a serious question: Does that mean you would be concerned enough to change your outlook should events spiral down once again in your particular industry? Is there anything that can happen that would make you change your mind on your bullish outlook? What signs should we look for?
My industry sees the thinning out of intl clients' staffing in the mid-phase of on-going buy and sell projects, and I see that the blood-letting has just started.
<<Anything can happen, of course, but based on historical trends, we look to have reached a good place.>>
By your logic so far, and in your total denial of all the possibilities of a bubble and its aftermath, all your beliefs and arguments can be applied to each step of the downtick in all previous bear market, and this one is young still.
<<engage in schadenfreude>>
In some cases, it is not a question of "I told you so" but a genuine effort to counter potentially dangerous propaganda of the bull, equally upsetting to others. And so this counter-propaganda and analysis are one of the many functions of the discussion threads.
Chugs, Jay |
