Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.34

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12:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (44195)	3/21/2001 12:30:17 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Gottfried, Though I may have been somewhat tongue-in-cheek about the cover story conspiracy, I am deadly serious that this has been an extremely reliable contrary indicator of the stock market. The lead time is usually only a few days so I would call it an important coincident indicator. To gauge what the indicator is telling us, we may need to peek beneath the cover a bit. The more negative and universal the storyline, the more positive the effect. I read the Time storyline as being quite complacent, so this certainly detracts somewhat from the bullishness of the indicator. Nevertheless, it suggests to me that the end of the bear could be quite near. Today's strength in early cyclicals (eg semis, semi equips, air freight) and weakness in defensives (drugs and tobacco) are the telltales I am watching. Sam

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