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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: chowder who wrote (2118)3/21/2001 1:51:20 PM
From: cnyndwllr  Read Replies (3) of 23153
 
Dabum3. Re: <<Do you think tomorrow's book to billing semi report will be positive or negative?>>

I think it's about 95%+ certain that they will be negative. It's a 3 month rolling average. I think that is already well built into the prices, including the expectations of retail investors who are as cognizant of the btb as most of us are of the api's. The difference is that the trend in btb's are, in my opinion, a little easier to track over the short term.

I have also looking at shorting the semi's. The problem is that they have held up pretty well during this dive and we are so low in the nas now that it may jump and take the semi's even higher. I think the intel connection is full of possibilities. If I had the nerve I might go long intel and short the semi's with the thought that if intel cut it's cap spending back it might get a bounce or at least hold, and the semi's would drop. It that didn't happen and the nas bounced, intel would likely bounce with the semi's and even it out. If the nas dropped and intel stood pat on it's plans, the semi shorts would work and the intel long would drop. Who knows, I might even talk myself into it. Any thoughts? Ed
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