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Biotech / Medical : IDPH--Positive preliminary results for pivotal trial of ID
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To: AARON DIDICH who wrote (970)6/8/1997 4:02:00 PM
From: Brad C. Dunlap   of 1762
 
Woooaa, that is one aggressive report. My understanding is that Feinberg manages the investments of Oracle Partners of which Feinberg and Oracle filed a 13D [over 5% holding] on Idec a few months back. I still can't get the numbers straight with the stock at 22 1/8 and trading at 4 times Feinberg's 1998 pretax earnings would put Feinberg's pretax number of $5.53/sh [22/18 divided by 4=5.53]. Idec has never stated the specifics of sharing agreements with Genentech and Roche but the analysts have been using between 30 and 40% of the profits. I believe the only public statement that Idec made in this regard is that Genentech gets more then half. Assuming 40% of 100 mill= $40 mill divided 26 mill sh outstanding[ = 1.53 in earnings. This is a huge number and by far more aggressive then any of the prior analyst's numbers but does not include the expenses of the rest of the pipeline. If Feinberg used the $100 mill divided by current sh outstanding of approx 19 mill = 5.26. This does not factor in genentech's cut nor the fully diluted shares which is the correct computation, then I see how he arrived at his numbers but not sure of the validity. One thing for sure is the numbers have the potential to be mind boggling if one figures the USA and Europe mkt and assuming decent market penetration. My personal conclusion considering C2B8 efficacy and toxicity profile relative to chemo/radiation should provide some real excitiment as this situation progresses with time.
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