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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (2158)	3/21/2001 5:10:49 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (2) of 23153

JimL. I can't say you're wrong but there is a contrary view that is starting to take shape and makes some sense. If this really is a soft landing then we are well into it and may be able to see out of it. The key is consumer spending and if I read the tea leaves correctly on this one, there are signs that many consumers have NOT cut back their levels of consumption to the point where we are going to see the meltdown in forward earnings that some project. Auto sales are good on a year to year basis, memory chip inventories are depleting rapidly and consumer confidence is low but holding up pretty well. If we begin to make a recovery in the markets it may feed not only that recovery but also fuel some delayed demand for purchases that were put off during this period of uncertainty and fear. The result could be impressive. I think it's an upside vs downside risk that could go either way and I sure wouldn't call anyone a fool that picked one side or the other. Not that you have but others have. I think it depends on how much you can risk and how risk aversive you are. Some on the old thread have lost so much they can't afford to gamble and some are living on fixed incomes and cannot gamble. Many on this thread are young and foolish enough to take the risks and recover if they lose. Some here are taking calculated gambles that will damage but not cripple their chances of hitting it big on the "real" bottom, if this isn't it or nearly it. I guess the point I'm making is that I think there are good reasons for playing in the street here and I think there weren't a month or two ago. I appreciate your thoughts on this and I believe that you have been amazingly accurate in your predictions and extremely articulate in your rationale for your opinions. You may well be right on the semi-equips. I have always been worried about the fact that they have held up too well. Do you think it's because the fund managers have to put their money somewhere and they decided to go to the soundest and best fundamental subsector that could hold some of their volume and prop that sector up? I don't know but if they did then that subsector should not be the indicator of when we have reached a bottom. Ed

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