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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: cnyndwllr who wrote (2163)3/21/2001 5:33:09 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
cnyndwller - Soft landing vs Hard landing (semi's)

I think there's no question that we're in for a hard landing. If we were in for a soft landing the S&P 500 and Dow stocks would not be entering into bear market territory. The Nasdaq would not be below 2000 (at least not yet). Whether or not we get an actual recession is acedemic at this point imho. When you slow from 3-5% average growth for multiple years (the longest economic expansion on RECORD!!), to 0%-1% it feels like a recession. We've wiped out 4 trillion in wealth. For the first time since the WWII net worth went down last year. Even in the horrible 70's it always managed a gain. Add to that the consumer (and corporation) is going into this downturn with record amount of debt and a negative saving's rate.

I think the question of hard landing vs soft landing was settled in Feb, but that's just me.

Intel fell from the 30's into the mid 20's just recently because an analyst said that due to a global slowdown and lack of visibility that it may not recover till late 2002.

First the recovery was supposed be late 2001, now it's the first half of 2002, but some are now saying late 2002 is very possible. Very few are acknowledging that it may take till late 2002. People will be patient for another few months, but the longer this drags out the more their patience will thin imho. Most of the people out there in the markets these days are a bunch of greedy bastards (myself included). We've come to believe 20% a year is justified.

Mania's don't end in 12 months and turn up.

The consumer is still spending now, but of all the gov indicators that's probably one of the bigger laggards of economic health. I wouldn't put much faith in it.

Just heard that Bear Stears is calling today's action in the semi's a bottom. Hell if enough people believe it why not, but ultimately history says that we're going lower.
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