Neil, I think you already know that I didn't agree with Mark's remark,
but I'll tell you anyway: I don't think you are a kettle!
As a minor point, WIND's revenue last year was $64M, not $74M.
Also, WIND never reveals the details of these deals. The $1.50 number
is a guess based on some analyst saying he thought WIND would get
between $1 and $3 per chip. In general, based on info from Allen Benn
in previous posts, WIND's target on these deals is around 2% of the
product cost. That doesn't mean they always get that, and it doesn't
mean that they never get more than that. Obviously, we have no idea
if the I2O royalty decreases as volume increases.
As I said in my post to Mark, there are a number of reasons to believe
that I2O will end up in every PC. The foremost reason is that Intel
owns the PC hardware platform, and will, therefore, push those
technologies that increase its profits. The PCI bus is a good example.
With I2O, Intel sells two processors per PC, instead of one. The
second reason is multi-media. A single CPU design has proven to be
inadequate in dealing with the high data rates presented by video and
audio streams. Intel has said they expect every PC by the year 2000
to have a DTV (digital TV) receiver built in. Conclusion: I2O will be
used to effectively handle these new data streams.
So, the answer to your question becomes one of estimating PC shipments
in future years, minus some fraction to account for low-end PCs that
don't support multi-media and PCs that use competing chips (which do
not exist yet). I like 70%, but all this is speculation, so pick your
own number. There will be non-PC I2O applications, as well, but I do
not have a clue as to what kind of volume this might be. Remember that
server PCs will likely have several I2O chips in each system. Also,
since many non-PC computer manufactures (IBM, HP, SGI, SUN, etc.) are
using the PCI bus, it is likely that some of these systems will make
use of I2O at some point.
Hope this helps.
-Dave Lehenky
P.S. I'll be glad when Allen gets back! |
