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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: MetalTrader who wrote (2171)3/21/2001 6:45:47 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
MetalTrader - AMAT/Semi's

You're right it's slightly foolish for me to be shorting anything here, but I'll keep a tight stop.

As for the % decline this cycle compared to last cycle I think you can throw that figure out the window. In the last cycle we didn't get an average PE of 100 on the Nasdaq. Most of the blue chip techs are down far more than AMAT. Why should AMAT be any different? James Cramer is going to great lengths to say why semi's are not at a bottom. If they were close from a timing standpoint or a valuation standpoint I don't think he'd chance having this much egg on his face.

Technically AMAT doesn't look that convincing to me, but maybe you see something I don't.

The analysts (and longs) are still way too positive while the CEO's are saying it's very premature. When that starts to reverse then we're closer to a bottom.

Also AMAT can run 10, maybe 15 pts before shorts will be lining up, tripping over each other to knock it down again. It's valuation can be said to be fair if all estimates hold and it's doesn't appreciate from these levels. I don't think it deserves a rich valuation with cloudy picture hovering both over AMAT and the markets themselves.

Maybe you can go long for the next 3-6 months and I'll go short and we'll see who wins?
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