Merrill Lynch Lowers Its Expectations For Economic Growth in Most of Asia
March 22, 2001
Business and Finance - Asia
By RICHARD BORSUK
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
SINGAPORE -- The outlook for economic growth this year has deteriorated in nearly all Asian countries -- and improved only in the Philippines -- since the start of 2001, according to Merrill Lynch.
In the latest issue of its "Asia Economic Trends" publication, dated March 20, Merrill Lynch forecasts Philippine economic growth this year at 3.2%. In December, when the last edition was issued, the investment bank's economics group projected Philippine growth for 2001 at 2.2%.
Referring to the replacement of Joseph Estrada by Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as president, the report says "the positive change in government in late January has made us relatively more optimistic on the economic growth prospects for the Philippines." Merrill Lynch said it believes the new government "can convert political optimism into improved consumer and investment spending," which should "mitigate the impact of the rapid slowdown in external demand."
Countries other than the Philippines are seen in the report as growing more slowly than forecast at the end of last year, or at the same rate as projected earlier. Japan, for instance, is now projected to grow only 0.7%, compared with the earlier forecast of 1.4%. Merrill Lynch has maintained its forecast for China's growth at 7.5%, and for Hong Kong to expand 4% this year. It estimates overall growth for Asia, not including Japan, to be 4.9%, a decline from its Dec. 2000 forecast of 5.3%.
While Asia "is expected to avoid recession, growth could be revised down further into the 2.0%-3.0% range if global growth drops below 2%," the report says. Its latest forecast for world growth this year is 2.4%, compared with 4.2% in the December forecast.
Write to Richard Borsuk at richard.borsuk@awsj.com1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
URL for this Article:
interactive.wsj.com
Hyperlinks in this Article:
(1) mailto:richard.borsuk@awsj.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright © 2001 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Printing, distribution, and use of this material is governed by your Subscription Agreement and copyright laws.
For information about subscribing, go to wsj.com
Used with permission of wsj.com |
