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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (2173)	3/21/2001 9:22:43 PM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (1) of 23153

Jim As with all things, there is no black and white, only shades of gray. Of course I left out the excessive valuation from my comment (Can't be balanced when trying to argue a point )...but you are absolutely correct to pick up on it. as for the chart, put an AMAT chart together with a 20/35/50 day moving average. it's one of the more simplistic but effective to show changing momentum, basing and supports. If you compare the confluence of these MA's you will see that compared with nearly all techs, semis are beginning to look promising. This is looking like bases that make technicians comfortable. Among the rare tech's that look at all interesting now as in investment, not a bet, Dell has hope, although I don't particularly like the PC sector fundamentally. The only tech I've found that really DOES look strong is Nvidia...good fundamentals too in my view. To return to a comparable low previous multiple of sales from earlier blow-ups, I've been trying to buy AMAT at 39 but since mid jan without success. As of this morning one market sentiment indicator had traders at only 13% bullish. Normally that should mean 87% have sold and the lemon doesn't have much juice left. Major international debacle from Asia or Europe and all bets are off. The lemon will start to look juicy again, but I believe unpredictable events are to be insured against not bet on. Traders were looking for a positive close today to signal a base for a few weeks of rally. It didn't happen, so a climactic sell off could be yet in the cards. I'd like to see a little semi book to bill reaction short attack to get amat down to my 39 where I'll take it in a heartbeat. MT

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