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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (7390)3/22/2001 1:14:49 AM
From: Vitas  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
arms over 1.50:

from Gerald Hoopes "Loops" at the longwaves sidegroup:

SWers. Treating a 10-day TRIN of 1.50 or bigger as a buy signal was not
only questionable in 1981, it was disastrous. This indicator usually
works, but when it doesn't you've had it. For catching the bottom of
cyclical bear markets, it acts something like the Six by Ten TRIN. That
is, it's a necessary but not sufficient condition for a bottom. The
81-82 period is one of those periods which I consider analogous to the
00-01 period, as measured from respective Loops sell signals. [The 73-74
period is an even better analogy so I focus on it more.] If I were a
bull, the fact the current market has just flashed a buy signal by way
of an indicator which failed only in 1981 would make me nervous. Instead
of viewing 81 as an anomaly, I view it as a rather appropriate analog to
the current situation. Gerald
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