Hi MeDroogies,
This is a response to your post ...
Message 15540330
<<disclosure … There is no context at all in my telling you that I sold ORCL at a higher price and still hold 200 shares.>>
Through our recent discussion, we can safely inform the thread of the following:
(a) Bill Gross recently said there is no compelling value in corporate bond market;
(b) Warren Buffet recent said there is no compelling value in the stock market, and none in his stock portfolio;
(c) Larry Ellison recent said, not in so many words, “Sell!”;
(d) FED governor recently said “go buy an SUV”;
(e) Green$pan said he will cut rates if he has to. Hayami said the same thing;
(f) Markets say “Down”, regardless of FED rate cuts or JOB rate cuts;
(g) Medroogies sold ORCL except for 200 shares, equivalent to one mass-market fancy watch;
(h) Medroogies says ORCL is either a hold or a buy or a sell, due to fundamentals of the software industry and the specifics of Oracle, in the context that the macro environment will be stabilized by the US Central Bank;
(i) MeDroogies exposure to tech is not known to the thread but if disclosed will provide no context; and
(j) Jay says sell on any strength, run and hide, in cash, near cash, precious metal mining, physical precious metals, short Yen, long platinum watch. Jay has minimum exposure to equity, and minimum exposure to tech.
I believe I have succinctly summarized our respective recommendations, each within the broader context of our respective situation and of the broader economy.
<<Interest rates … interpreted as a strong positive action.>>
I agree that Greenspan’s rate policy is bullish for equity, but I do not believe the policy alone, or in combination with tax cut, will substantially help the equity market in the near term or for folks buying and holding, especially if done on leveraged basis.
<<The serious question you ask is almost humorous … I make my decisions based on historical precedent … Certainly, if my industry suddenly tanks again, in a surprising manner, I would alter my viewpoint then. Right now, there is no solid evidence that I should.>>
Altering your viewpoint at that particular moment may not be a good idea if you are going into the possibly dangerous period fully loaded with shares. This is where a bit of allocation disclosure will help folks reading your posted views, giving them some additional context to fully understand what may or may not be right for them.
Please understand that I am not inviting you to disclose your overall allocation. I am only making the point that the advice being dispensed on these stock specific bullish threads are totally out of context. But you know that.
<<… Things went SO WRONG and SO FAST in media … media has a few interesting quirks that allow us to get a bead on where spending will be 6 months out … However, longer term spending was actually rising… With the cuts in interest rates, much of the advertising revenue that would be likely pulled to cover debt financing or cover profits (which is what they do with the cash) won't be pulled now. That is a bullish indicator.>>
Classical marketing management calls for increased brand advertising by financially stronger companies during economic downturns. What you see in your company may simply be due to companies doing the classical move. Not sure, but it is obviously dangerous to base investment decisions on such a single isolated data point amongst all other more troubling data points, as I am sure you are not.
<<Negativity is something that people don't like to engage in, it's very tiring.>>
Yes, but if the shoe fits, it's ugly, at least for now.
<<As for the schadenfreude ...>>
Not an issue here as we are all trying to determine the right steps to a wealthier future, taking proper account of context, including stamina, time horizon, macro economy and company specific data points.
Chugs, Jay |
