Good post Dabum. The greater population now seems aware of the recession we've been in for about four to five months now - how observant.
The media is screaming doom & gloom just a matter of a few weeks after it was all sunshine & happiness - no recession, economies worldwide doing ok, Japan a non-issue, second half recovery, blah blah blah. Now it's 180 degrees the other way, what a difference three weeks makes. Perhaps the real revelation will be when the D word is being used regarding Japan.
I've been betting on a rally before a big plunge, but lately I'm questioning that more and more. I'm a little upset that I closed all my shorts too soon - particularly JPM, and frankly I'm feeling a little exposed at the moment. So far in the last week I've just been flat to modestly up due to help from BPT and PDC, but how much longer will that work?
Worried about being long, and worried about opening new short positions. What's a downhole tool to do?
I think I'll buy some protective puts, and perhaps some speculative ones - depends on prices & premiums. Shorts in biotech look ok, and I might also pop SEV for a short to offset some of my oily longs.
The contrarian in me says this is wrong - when the media and Joe 6 pack are so negative we typically get the opposite reaction. How much longer before this becomes easy again?
Sharp
P.S. so far the plan on KREM is working. Let it run a little more if it will, then buy some May puts. |
