re: Gartner Dataquest on Phone Sales
>> Mobile Phone Sales Growing, Rate Slowing
By Jay Wrolstad
Wireless NewsFactor
March 21, 2001
Phone manufacturers unveiling products this week at the Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association trade show in Las Vegas, Nevada -- and at Europe's CeBIT technology showcase in Hanover, Germany -- got some encouraging news from market analysis firm Gartner Dataquest, which projected a 23 percent increase in global mobile phone sales this year.
Dataquest predicted cell phone sales will reach 506.5 million units this year, but the rate of growth will be down from 2000, when worldwide sales increased 38 percent over 1999 levels.
Asia Poised To Spring Ahead
The most active mobile phone market last year was Western Europe, Dataquest reported, with shipments of 140.5 million units, but the Asia-Pacific and Japan region is poised to take the top spot with projected sales of 169.6 million phones in 2001, a 31 percent increase over 2000. Sales in Western Europe should reach 166.6 million units, a 19 percent increase over 2000, Dataquest said.
North America will be the number three region for mobile phone sales in 2001, with shipments forecast to reach 90.1 million units, an 18 percent increase over 2000; and Latin America will grow 17 percent, with sales expected to top 42 million units, according to Dataquest. The rest of Europe, the Middle East and Africa is on pace for total sales of 38.2 million units, up 23 percent from last year.
Supply Tops Demand
"The rapid annual growth rates of the past several years concealed numerous operational and strategic weaknesses among global handset manufacturers," said Bryan Prohm, senior analyst for Gartner Dataquest's worldwide telecommunications group. "However, these deficiencies are now being fully exposed, thanks to a more challenging business environment.
"Supply has finally surpassed demand," Prohm added, "and although sales growth will continue, only those manufacturers with a strongly differentiated offering will continue to thrive."
Four More Years
The mobile phone market will continue to grow through 2005, when worldwide sales will approach 740 million units, researchers said.
The Asia-Pacific and Japan region will continue to lead worldwide sales in 2005, when shipments are projected to reach 280 million units. Western Europe will remain the number two region with sales of 207 million units in 2005, Dataquest said.
Cautious Estimates
The bullish report comes amid conservative sales estimates and projected spending cuts for 2001 by the world's cell phone giants.
According to published reports, Nokia has reduced its sales forecast to 450 to 500 million units from 500 to 550 million units; Motorola predicts sales of fewer than 500 million phones, down from previous projections of 525 to 575 million; and Siemens expects sales of fewer than 450 million handsets this year.
"The market is in a curious situation," said Peter Richardson, chief analyst for Gartner Dataquest's worldwide telecommunications group. "High levels of stock carried over from year 2000 are depressing new sales from manufacturers in the first quarter, but sales out of the channel in Europe and Asia-Pacific remain strong, underlining our belief that annual sales of more than 500 million units are still possible."
Gartner, founded in 1979 and headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, had 2000 revenues of US$859 million. The company's 4,600 associates -- including 1,400 research analysts and consultants -- work in more than 80 locations worldwide. <<
- Eric - |
